> For the complete documentation index, see [llms.txt](https://www.bfm-unity.org/llms.txt). Markdown versions of documentation pages are available by appending `.md` to page URLs; this page is available as [Markdown](https://www.bfm-unity.org/invest-method/group-1/ma-ke-wei-zi-yu-kai-li-gong-shi.md).

# 马科维兹与凯利公式

## 资产配置

[比特币仓位管理——连续化凯利公式](https://www.bfm-unity.com/v/joinquant/joinquant/bi-te-bi-cang-wei-guan-li-lian-xu-hua-kai-li-gong-shi)

### 马科维兹 <a href="#ma-ke-wei-zi" id="ma-ke-wei-zi"></a>

![](https://1765781468-files.gitbook.io/~/files/v0/b/gitbook-legacy-files/o/assets%2F-M6CRaXFMq2pMngzlUK3%2F-MOW-AcZBa4luiGbs1-y%2F-MOW-NOfC-vnl0Ie0XdV%2F60FCD0E012EEE3B51A21E984B41F132D.jpg?alt=media\&token=7577e32d-b0b4-4634-be73-f6cd475a9ced)马克维茨准则 = 均值方差准则的有效边界 马克维茨准则之所以停留在教材里，基本无法实用，最恶心的一点是，你需要确定自己的无差异曲线。 但是正常人可能都不是机器人，无法确定自己的无差异曲线。![](https://1765781468-files.gitbook.io/~/files/v0/b/gitbook-legacy-files/o/assets%2F-M6CRaXFMq2pMngzlUK3%2F-MOW2Igr1FA4bwUmnsKQ%2F-MOW2Q4sRZUJyo14v_z6%2Fe6623746b4f8bd55e364724d55d06135.png?alt=media\&token=aa56ebe1-8189-4a99-b3ba-e91e7645b25c)

### 如何进行不带感情的判断呢？解决方案：凯利准则 <a href="#undefined" id="undefined"></a>

![](https://1765781468-files.gitbook.io/~/files/v0/b/gitbook-legacy-files/o/assets%2F-M6CRaXFMq2pMngzlUK3%2F-MOW08_sXPDd4DThiOmX%2F-MOW0q6dgDwYLA9_bPLs%2F3828f7385a5e0dec2704ec30f18b096c.png?alt=media\&token=9e7e7494-7963-4349-88ab-4f4a951fd2c1)![](https://1765781468-files.gitbook.io/~/files/v0/b/gitbook-legacy-files/o/assets%2F-M6CRaXFMq2pMngzlUK3%2F-MOW08_sXPDd4DThiOmX%2F-MOW0duiCPZgUkjcx_m3%2F279480897a3c9952c2ac9bc585022efb.png?alt=media\&token=1f8c13ae-41b2-492a-873d-5f5660786a11)设几何平均数为k，则k=E-1/2σ^2 我们可以画很多，E=1/2σ^2+k的曲线，与E轴的交点为k。 那么很显然，k最大的点就是这个曲线与有效边界相切的点。 在0杠杆时，凯利准则是这个红的点，可以唯一确定的。

### 凯利公式 <a href="#kai-li-gong-shi" id="kai-li-gong-shi"></a>

#### 0，先说协方差是什么： <a href="#id-0" id="id-0"></a>

![](https://1765781468-files.gitbook.io/~/files/v0/b/gitbook-legacy-files/o/assets%2F-M6CRaXFMq2pMngzlUK3%2F-MOW08_sXPDd4DThiOmX%2F-MOW1Gb2vM7RHsU6wrEx%2Fe5a20b68578d5bedd728a52fcb11f747.png?alt=media\&token=01e26b42-d0fb-4bb9-9ada-6925cb9a906b)

#### 1，很多人在谈论凯利公式，但是他们好像使用了适用于赌博的凯利公式， <a href="#id-1" id="id-1"></a>

#### 适用于赌博的凯利公式并不适用于股票和资产配置。以下是它们的区别： <a href="#undefined-1" id="undefined-1"></a>

![](https://1765781468-files.gitbook.io/~/files/v0/b/gitbook-legacy-files/o/assets%2F-M6CRaXFMq2pMngzlUK3%2F-MOW08_sXPDd4DThiOmX%2F-MOW1QoXQHiCMkpa7MLz%2Fd5aedabf3ff97dbd16ca0e47c5607a51.png?alt=media\&token=ae96dae2-2d38-40df-b937-b9bc7d5799ce)

#### 2，适用于股票和资产配置的凯利公式 F= C^-1 M 的证明： <a href="#id-2-f-c-1-m" id="id-2-f-c-1-m"></a>

![](https://1765781468-files.gitbook.io/~/files/v0/b/gitbook-legacy-files/o/assets%2F-M6CRaXFMq2pMngzlUK3%2F-MOW08_sXPDd4DThiOmX%2F-MOW1fn9-QVfZlp6mNRf%2F34820b124e950936e1d88802b448f345.png?alt=media\&token=3a97ecaf-8ef1-4629-8b6c-aee99d10acb3)

#### 3，关于凯利准则（最大几何平均数准则）： <a href="#id-3" id="id-3"></a>

![](https://1765781468-files.gitbook.io/~/files/v0/b/gitbook-legacy-files/o/assets%2F-M6CRaXFMq2pMngzlUK3%2F-MOW08_sXPDd4DThiOmX%2F-MOW1qcBi-McL1oKT9E3%2Fa441ebbc4bd836b0a7c3db57fc8bb29f.png?alt=media\&token=c81e87e5-1924-4954-91be-c3ed9741a345)

#### 4，凯利系统的优越性：凯利>马丁>定投>梭哈 <a href="#id-4" id="id-4"></a>

![](https://1765781468-files.gitbook.io/~/files/v0/b/gitbook-legacy-files/o/assets%2F-M6CRaXFMq2pMngzlUK3%2F-MOW08_sXPDd4DThiOmX%2F-MOW27rXFAMW2PxE1dwv%2F9a538f164e449818b0e309b70c973f03.png?alt=media\&token=31cd6a84-d476-4e9b-950f-a189216bb5b6)

#### 3，参考： <a href="#id-3-1" id="id-3-1"></a>

0，《赌神数学家：战胜拉斯维加斯和金融市场的财富公式》&#x20;

1，[zhihu-赵又奇的文章](https://www.zhihu.com/people/zhao-you-qi-31/posts)&#x20;

2，[算法交易Frame](http://www.360doc.com/content/18/0123/12/42576766_724401695.shtml)&#x20;

3，[什么是协方差，怎么计算？为什么需要协方差？](https://blog.csdn.net/Russell_W/article/details/85118486)&#x20;

4，[用凯利公式计算最优配置](http://www.360doc.com/content/19/0714/13/54009962_848630371.shtml)


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