# MVRV

#### [原始策略](https://share.weiyun.com/a0QaKX11)（[介绍视频](https://www.bilibili.com/video/BV1uA411g7Sn)）

![](https://1260577746-files.gitbook.io/~/files/v0/b/gitbook-x-prod.appspot.com/o/spaces%2FgqpPlwTQfAEjXOBFmDK6%2Fuploads%2Fgit-blob-907d9c080f67204120d2aa71b42d38e331419c0d%2Fmvrv-jian-ban-.png?alt=media)

![](https://1260577746-files.gitbook.io/~/files/v0/b/gitbook-x-prod.appspot.com/o/spaces%2FgqpPlwTQfAEjXOBFmDK6%2Fuploads%2Fgit-blob-907d9c080f67204120d2aa71b42d38e331419c0d%2Fmvrv-jian-ban-.png?alt=media)

![](https://1260577746-files.gitbook.io/~/files/v0/b/gitbook-x-prod.appspot.com/o/spaces%2FgqpPlwTQfAEjXOBFmDK6%2Fuploads%2Fgit-blob-1d80f767e5d6099b46e0542be6aa7d26dc42dc4b%2Fmvrv.png?alt=media)

MVRV 由两部分组成，市值（MV）和实现市值（RV），是二者的比率。市值好理解，理解实现市值是理解这个指标的关键。

实现市值是指市场中比特币 UTXO （产生时）的价格的总和，大体体现了市场参与者的持币成本——交易所的交易不完全体现为 UTXO 的变动，因此这里只能是"大体体现"。

MVRV 可以简单地理解为目前的市场价格和成本的比率。

| MVRV | 1     | 3    | 4  | x                                     |
| ---- | ----- | ---- | -- | ------------------------------------- |
|      | 0     | 2    | 3  | x-1                                   |
|      | 4     | 2    | 1  | 4-x+1                                 |
|      | 2     | 1    | 0  | LOG(4-x+1,2)                          |
|      | 0     | 1    | 2  | 2-LOG(4-x+1,2)                        |
|      | 0     | 1    | 4  | POWER(2-LOG(4-x+1,2))                 |
|      | 0     | 0.25 | 1  | 1-y=(POWER(2-LOG(4-x+1,2),2)/4)       |
| 仓位牛  | **1** | 0.75 | 0  | y\_BULL=1-(POWER(2-LOG(4-x+1,2),2)/4) |
|      |       |      |    |                                       |
|      | 1     | 2    | 4  | x                                     |
|      | 0     | 1    | 2  | LOG(x,2)                              |
|      | 2     | 1    | 0  | 2-LOG(x,2)                            |
|      | 4     | 1    | 0  | 4\*y=POWER(2-LOG(x,2),2)              |
| 仓位1  | 1     | 0.25 | 0  | y1=POWER(2-LOG(x,2),2)/4              |
|      |       |      |    |                                       |
| MVRV | 1     | 1.5  | 4  | x                                     |
|      | 6     | 5    | 0  | 8-2\*x                                |
|      | 4096  | 1024 | 1  | POWER(8-2\*x,4)                       |
| 仓位2  | 1     | 0.25 | ≈0 | y2=POWER(8-2\*x,4)/4096               |
|      |       |      |    |                                       |
| 仓位熊  |       |      |    | y\_BEAR=(3\*y1+2\*y2)/5               |

## BFM Unity 的 MVRV 评级：（以四分之一为准）

| 时间 | <p>2021.<br>1.11</p> | <p>2021.<br>1.11</p> | <p>2021.</p><p>1.21</p> | <p>2021.</p><p>1.27</p> |   |   |   |
| -- | -------------------- | -------------------- | ----------------------- | ----------------------- | - | - | - |
| 评级 | B                    | C                    | C                       | C                       |   |   |   |
| 仓位 | 25%                  | 0                    | 2.53%                   | 4.36%                   |   |   |   |